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Safety Risk Model

Through research, analysis, and insight RSSB supports our members and stakeholders to deliver a​ safer, more efficient and sustainable rail system​​.

An understanding of the overall risk level and risk profile of the railway is essential to facilitate this.
The Safety Risk Model (SRM) is a quantitative representation of the potential accidents resulting from the operation and maintenance of the GB rail network. It comprises a total of 131 individual models, each representing a type of hazardous event. A hazardous event is defined as an event that has the potential to result in injuries or fatalities.

The SRM is, where possible, populated using safety related incident data. This is taken from the rail industry’s safety management information system (SMIS). The SRM also includes predictions of the risk contribution from low frequency but potentially high consequence accidents for which there is little or no relevant data available. Where little data exists the model is populated using structured expert judgement from technical specialists or statistical techniques.

For more information on the SRM and its outputs go to the Rail Risk Portal.

The SRM-Risk Profile Bulletin

SRM Risk Profile Bulletin

The Safety Risk Model - Risk Profile Bulletin (SRM-RPB) contains risk information and risk profiles derived from the Safety Risk Model. It includes tables of frequency and consequence data from the SRM for companies to use to help improve their understanding and management of risk.

The current version of the SRM is v8. A full SRM update was carried out to produce v8, comprising a data refresh of the model using data up to 30th September 2013 and the remodelling of some hazardous events (including those relating to platform-train interface risk). Version 8 of the SRM is the first to fully incorporate the risk from hazardous events in yards, depots and sidings that are not part of the mainline operational railway.

The latest revision, SRMv8.1, includes a subsequent partial update of trespass and suicide-related hazardous events to take into account new information that BTP has made available about specific fatalities. 

Figures from version 8.1 are available from the Rail Risk Portal. The full RPB will be published on the Portal in August 2014 and will supersede version 7.5, which was published in June 2013.

The SRM-RPB is available to download as both an Adobe Acrobat file and MS Excel spreadsheets. The main body of the SRM-RPB sets out:

  • The objective of the Safety Risk Model
  • System boundaries - what the SRM-RPB covers and doesn't cover
  • Changes from previous versions of the SRM-RPB
  • The total risk results for the GB Mainline Railway
  • Overall risk profiles
  • Details of the HLOS requirements - Passenger and staff safety metrics
  • Detailed risk profiles by accident and person types. 

This is supported by a suite of tables in the appendices that contain: 

  • The frequency, consequence and risk estimates for each hazardous event
  • The frequency and risk contributions for all precursors leading to each hazardous event
  • A breakdown of risk into key risk areas and selected risk groupings
  • Details of any key assumptions used in calculating individual risk along with a summary of the calculations for each person type
  • Details of the modelling approach implemented in that version of the SRM
  • A list of the key assumptions and definitions related to the analysis.

The SRM-Risk Profile Tool

The SRM -Risk Profile Tool (SRM-RPT) is a risk management tool for industry stakeholders, and is used to quantify the significant causes and consequences associated with each of the 131 identified hazardous events. This enables users to identify key areas of risk associated with their operations and to prioritise their investment in safety, using a risk based approach.

You can request access to this on the Rail Risk Portal.

The SRM-Risk Profile Tool update – request for input from industry

​RSSB is currently undertaking a project to update the SRM-Risk Profile Tool (SRM-RPT). To ensure the tool meets industry’s needs we are conducting requirements gathering interviews throughout July and August 2017. We would like to speak to both users of the current SRM-RPT, and non-users who would like understand the risk profile of their company’s operations. If you would like to provide input into the design and functionality of the new SRM-RPT please email

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