Futures Lab focuses on three thematic programmes: weather resilience and climate change adaptation, digitisation, complex software and data, and automation and autonomous systems. These programmes are currently being developed and have been selected specifically to reflect their position as significant future challenges which will be faced by GB rail.

The thematic programmes are underpinned and addressed by Future Lab’s three core capabilities:

  • foresight and horizon scanning
  • systems modelling and complex systems risk management
  • simulation and forecast based modelling.

What kind of work has been done so far?

Our Foresight and Horizon Scanning aims to offer a responsive and dynamic strategic foresight capability to provide clients with the adaptability and flexibility necessary to meet the challenges of an evolving and uncertain future environment.

Since the beginning of the year, the team has undertaken a series of innovative participatory projects in collaboration with industry working groups  National Freight Safety Group (NFSG), Asset Integrity Group (AIG), and Train Accident Risk Group (TARG).

Futures Lab developed a series of in-person ‘group elicitation workshops’ using several foresight methods. These were designed to enable participants to express their ideas and thoughts from their own perspectives, informed by their own wide-ranging professional knowledge and experience.

While responding to the specific needs and different remits of each working group, these projects exhibit three common themes:

  • requests to support the working group in adopting a longer-term perspective
  • helping them co-develop strategic insights
  • helping start a dialogue on emerging risks and future vulnerabilities.

For example, Futures Lab was asked to support NFSG’s forward planning and longer-term strategic development, and deliver a rapid strategic review of emergent risks that are likely to impact the freight sector in the next three to five years. Futures Lab is now working on a proposal to prioritise the key themes identified and undertake further futures-orientated analysis work.

Futures Lab supported AIG Challenge 4 – ‘Understand and address emerging risks and vulnerabilities to asset integrity’ – by exploring under-recognised current industry risks, potential emerging risks, and possible longer-term risks under various future operating environments. The insights gained from this analysis helped inform the next stage of AIG’s strategic decision making and will contribute to raising the industry's awareness of possible future issues through the AIG's CP7 Roadmap. AIG has asked Futures Lab to provide further support.

Futures Lab was asked to support TARG in considering what might be the most significant longer-term ‘horizon challenges’ to safe train operations, TARG and its work. Futures Lab expertise was also enlisted to help the group open a discussion on emerging risks and provide greater strategic background for their future work.

Looking ahead

Futures Lab foresight and horizon scanning teams continue to develop their emerging risks framework and participatory approaches. They are working with the Rail Industry Risk Forum to provide an online emerging risks discovery workshop for risk managers of train operating companies in October.

Futures Lab is playing a pivotal role in shaping the future of the rail industry by proactively identifying opportunities and mitigating risks through foresight, analysis, and innovation. Its work with the industry working groups shows that it ensures stakeholders are equipped for the future.

Through its dedication to staying ahead of the curve, the Futures Lab is paving the way for a safer, more efficient, and more resilient rail industry for years to come.