Futures Lab has been founded on three core capabilities, each of which contributes to an integrated approach when working with clients, RSSB members, and wider industry partners and stakeholders. The capabilities are:

  • foresight and horizon scanning
  • systems modelling and complex systems risk management
  • simulation and forecast based modelling.

Each capability draws on recognised approaches and toolkits, and actively explores new techniques and methods being developed by academia and other institutions, organisations, and sectors outside of rail. In combination, these enable Futures Lab to identify, assess, experiment, and innovate with responses to a range of different strategic challenges, possible opportunities, and emerging risks involving a variety of different timescales. 

Foresight and horizon scanning methods enable Futures Lab to identify, monitor, and evaluate key themes of future change and, in partnership with the client, develop strategic insights and explore opportunities or risks. Systems modelling and complex systems risk management tools help Futures Lab to outline possible impacts of that future change, while simulation and forecast-based modelling provides opportunities for Futures Lab to evaluate operational challenges and test a range of potential responses. 

In these activities, Futures Lab draws directly from across RSSB’s existing expertise and resources but is additionally informed by many different examples of best practice already well established in industry. For instance, for risk methodologies, Futures Lab uses risk determinants, risk foresight, and the EU’s Framework for multi-hazard, multi-sector, and systemic risk management. Its evolving emerging risks framework draws on work from the International Risks Governance Council, the Institute of Risk Management, and Deloitte. It is also guided by national and international standards in this area: the forthcoming ISO 31050 Guidelines for managing emerging risk to enhance resilience, BSI 65000 Organisational Resilience, and AS/NZS 5050 Managing Disruption Related Risk. Futures Lab also uses a range of recognised foresight methods including scenarios, Three Horizons, and VERGE. 

The decision over which tools to use is made in discussion with the client but informed by a structured process which enables Futures Lab to develop a richer and more specific understanding of each client’s needs. The overall aim is to encourage an anticipatory approach to the issues of future change and risk, which builds insights over time. 

For rail, and Futures Lab, there’s an added twist. As a key mode of transport, rail is part of critical national infrastructure and so one of 13 sectors identified in the UK as essential for the day-to-day functioning of society and the economy. Rail is expected to be resilient to the many challenges it does, and may, face, and to provide continuous and safe services even in very difficult circumstances. Accordingly, Futures Lab is developing a ‘resilience foresight’ focus so it can support organisations in rail to engage with and understand these critical longer-term challenges even more effectively. 

Whatever the precise nature of your strategic or operational concerns about the future, Futures Lab is keen to work with you to help you think differently about change, navigate uncertainty, and enhance your present-day decision making.