A climate projection estimates how future climate conditions might change over time. The climate conditions include temperature, rainfall, and sea levels. Climate projections are based on various scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. These projections use climate models to predict potential outcomes under different assumptions about human activities. The projections give valuable insights about the potential impacts of climate change. This helps policymakers and planners to prepare.

Until now, the rail industry has used different climate change scenarios. There has not been a single or consistent approach. As a result, members of the rail industry Climate Change Adaptation Working Group (CCAWG) have agreed that rail should use standardised set of climate change scenarios. This will harmonise data and methods and will help the industry develop consistent approaches to assess physical risks. There are four climate change scenarios that CCAWG have agreed to use. 

The chosen scenarios can be used in a systematic and practical way to incorporate resilience into rail. This includes the design and operation of rail infrastructure and services. This applies to both passenger and freight services.

The rail industry can use these projections to develop:

  • climate change risk and vulnerability assessments
  • project and asset designs
  • strategic planning activities. 

For practical purposes, focusing on one or two scenarios is the recommended, manageable approach.