Safety Risk Model: Improving safety and reducing costs

Previous applications of the model

• Identifying the optimal response to train radio failures. The SRM-enabled risk modelling work helped develop consensus on an issue that could otherwise have led to significant industrial action and cost millions of pounds.
• Analysing the costs and benefits of retrofitting train power doors to reduce risk from trap-and-drag events, which averted up to £50m in unnecessary expenditure.
• Supporting the implementation of Emergency Special Working so that trains can be moved more quickly and more safely following major signalling failures.
• Assessing the business case for retrofitting enhanced in cab Train Protection and Warning System equipment for each operator and fleet. 

Current applications of the model

The SRM is currently used for the following applications, which incorporate elements of the local risk estimation we have built into the latest version. 

• Identifying the optimal operational response to extreme rainfall following the accident at Carmont in 2020. This is achieved by modelling both the direct safety risk from events such as earthwork failure and the indirect safety risk from the disruption associated with mitigations such as slowing or stopping trains.
• Supporting roll-out of the European Train Control System (ETCS), by modelling the safety-related cost and benefit of different train protection options for partially fitted ETCS configurations on different track sections.
• Evaluating the benefits of secondary communication and emergency protection to inform a change to national standards that will reduce re-signalling costs and potentially enable the removal of detonators.

If you have a decision that the SRM can support or want to find out more, please contact us using the details below.