Rail safety: staying ahead of the curve

Safety improvements are made by analysing lessons learnt from the past and using experience and expert knowledge to identify potential vulnerabilities in the system under scrutiny.

The worst-case scenario is learning from an accident or incident after it has occurred. While incredibly valuable, these ‘lagging indicators’ of safety deterioration – come at an unacceptably high cost.

The ideal scenario in safety is to identify ‘leading’ indicators and potential safety issues/hazards in a changed system – these can give us early warning of potential problems,so we can minimise the potential for such events.

As rail anticipates significant change, the search for leading indicators and other early warning signs is more important than ever. Change has the potential to put safety under strain, as responsibilities are altered and well-established procedures and precautions are affected. 

What’s changing in rail?

The pandemic has led to staff shortages, service disruptions, and even more focus on costs with reduced passenger numbers. There may also be a long-term shift in rail use—at present, passenger numbers are only at around three-quarters of pre-pandemic levels.

In the longer term, Britain’s railway faces technological change on many fronts, such as further electrification programmes, and the advent of the use of alternative traction energy such as battery or hydrogen trains. 

And despite some uncertainty about timing, creating Great British Railways and the associated Department for Transport led rail transformation programme (RTP) is exploring ways to reorganise the railway for the better, and affect wider reformwith new ways of working.

So while Britain’s railways is currently one of the safest railways in the world, we need to take every opportunity to stay ahead of the curve on safety.

Change is good (mostly) 

From our wide experience, at RSSB we know that organisational and structural changes to the  sector, if not managed and implemented correctly, have the potential to lead to a deterioration in safety. And we’re not alone in this—DfT and the Office of Rail and Road (ORR) have came to the same conclusion. RSSB is supporting the DfT and the ORR with our independent analysis, expert input and data to identify any emerging safety issues which need addressing. 

This work is an extension of what we’re already doing to identify rail risk indicators that may offer early warning of potential future problems. It includes: 

• Reviewing accident inquiry reports, from the rail industry and beyond, to identify the key themes that can jeopardise safety
• Creating an assessment approach that can help assess changes proposed and identify any potential problems or opportunities for improvements
• Undertaking risk and data analysis to identify areas of interests including existing and new leading indicators where relevant

Reviewing past accident inquiries for insights

It’s vital to learn as much as possible from accidents in the past. And we needn’t confine ourselves to rail. There are common safety themes to be found in accident reports from many industries. These range from oil (such as incidents at the Piper Alpha rig and the Buncefield oil depo), to air (the Nimrod air crash), and even to space (the Challenger explosion). These provide an excellent starting point to understand what can go wrong and to not repeat mistakes of the past. 

Working together, for safety in the future

Rail already analyses huge quantities of safety-related data. For instance, RSSB’s Rail Safety Intelligence team provides a range of reports, tools and systems for safety monitoring that target key risk areas in rail. 

We work collaboratively with the industry – and when it comes to safety, this is absolutely vital. Liaison with industry groups will be key to identifying concerns and evidence, and gaining access to a full range of data sources. 

That’s why we’ve already started engaging the sector; we’ll be ramping this up further over the coming months. 

The aim is to not only address any potential safety issues relating to changes in the industry, but to help everyone in rail continue to stay ahead of the curve on safety.