Tracking tends in train accident risk using an interactive dashboard
RSSB first developed the Precursor Indicator Model (PIM) to profile and track changes in train accident risk around two decades ago. Although it is well-used and has evolved over time to reflect changes to rail operations and user requirements, operators wanted to get more from the model.
Events like collisions and derailments are rare, so analysing potential causes, such as human errors or asset faults and failures, is the best way of understanding this risk and how it is changing.
To get more out of the PIM, they wanted to be able to drill down into its outputs to understand how the contribution from a specific cause was changing and to review recent incidents. In an increasingly devolved railway, they also wanted to better understand risk at a regional level.
We developed an interactive dashboard to enable our members and other stakeholders to view and explore different contributors to train accident risk. New functionality enables users to review risk at a regional level and drill down into event data to understand what is driving changes.
We also made improvements to the underlying model, including a more granular breakdown of the risk from earthworks failures and more robust regional estimates.
To help users get the most value from the new-look PIM, we produced succinct user guidance on the dashboard, the model itself, and the datasets that are used to update it.
We followed its launch with a series of engagement visits, including all Network Rail regions, to demonstrate and promote the new tool.
The new PIM gives decision makers oversight of a range of railway assets and operations risks. It reflects the effectiveness of current risk controls and the impact of events such as extreme weather.
The new PIM can track long- and short-term trends. It can identify risk areas that may need additional management attention based on an understanding of their contribution to overall train accident risk and how this changes over time.
Feedback has been excellent, and the new tool is being well-used, particularly across Network Rail. A review of train accident risk metrics for Network Rail Executive highlighted the importance of the PIM. Further enhancements are being planned that would provide even more detail for specific risk areas.