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Safety Risk Model

The Safety Risk Model (SRM) is a comprehensive mathematical representation of 131 hazardous events which together model the safety risk of the GB mainline railway.

The SRM has been designed to take full account both of high-frequency, low-consequence events (eg slips, trips and falls), and low-frequency, high-consequence events (eg train accidents). It was developed using modelling techniques informed by a combination of incident data and expert judgement. Most of the data used to populate the SRM comes from the rail industry’s accident reporting into the Safety Management Information System (SMIS); a national reporting system provided and maintained by RSSB.

The SRM has been developed in the form of a cause and consequence analysis using fault trees and event trees to represent each of the hazardous events. Its power lies in its ability to inform decisions on safety priorities and assess the impact of possible risk controls

The causes and consequences of each event are modelled in detail, considering the railway as a whole, rather than concentrating on a particular route or operator.

The results of the SRM are made available through the issue of the Safety Risk Model - Risk Profile Bulletin (SRM-RPB) and can be used to develop a transport operators a risk profile through the Safety Risk Model - Risk Profile Tool (SRM-RPT). Previous versions of the SRM can be found in the Safety Risk Model - Risk Profile Bulletin Archive.

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